Auckland’s vision is to become the world’s most liveable city. As the world’s most liveable city Auckland will be a place that:

• Aucklanders are proud of,
• they want to stay or return to, and
• others want to visit, move to, or invest in.

18_ The goal of liveability expresses our shared desire to create a city where all people can enjoy a high quality of life and improved standards of living, a city which is attractive to mobile people, firms, and investors, and a place where environmental and social standards are respected.

19_ Chapter 15 describes how we will measure liveability in Auckland. This section considers the global trends that are likely to impact on cities between now and 2040, and now Auckland will need to respond if the vision is to be realised. First, we need to understand Auckland as it is now: its place in New Zealand, and what makes it unique internationally.

20_ Cities are integral to the economic prospects of nations. As New Zealand’s largest city and commercial centre, and home to around a third of the population, Auckland’s success is critical to the well-being of all New Zealanders. Auckland cannot reach its potential unless New Zealand as a whole does well: the well-being of Auckland and the rest of New Zealand are inextricably linked.

21_ Auckland’s employment diversity, market size and business clustering are unmatched by other centres, making it well placed to attract the high-value economic activities, skilled migrants and international investment required to improve the living standards of all New Zealanders.

22_ Auckland is New Zealand’s commercial centre, leading the finance, insurance, transport and logistics, and business services industries. It is the largest centre for manufacturing, with growing clusters in the marine, advanced materials, and food and beverage sectors.

23_ The scale of commercial activity, concentration of relatively high-value industries and greater number of highly skilled workers is such that labour productivity is 30% to 50% higher in Auckland, and 150% higher in the city centre, than in other New Zealand regions. With a 35% share, Auckland is one of a handful of cities around the world that generates more than a third of its nation’s GDP.

24_ As a trade-dependent nation with a migrant heritage, New Zealand is heavily dependent on its connections with the outside world for much of its economic prosperity. With its international airport, ports, transport and freight infrastructure, Auckland is New Zealand’s gateway to and from the rest of the world (see Box B.1).

BOX B.1 AUCKLAND’s GATEWAY FUNCTION (2009/10)¹

25_ Given its size and isolation, New Zealand needs its cities and regions to work together if it is to compete internationally. Councils across the upper North Island (the area north of Taupō – including the cities of Tauranga, Hamilton and Whāngārei, with 52% of New Zealand’s population), have signed an agreement to co-operate on matters of shared interest such as transport links, other forms of infrastructure, and land-use planning. Auckland is the key distribution centre for the upper North Island, and the improved interregional links that the agreement may encourage are needed to cope with the increase in freight volumes expected over the next few years. (See Chapter 12).

26_ Skilled people are critical to our future competitiveness. Auckland is the most important centre in New Zealand for education and skills training. Its tertiary institutes attract students and staff from around the country and the world: the city hosts 41% of New Zealand’s tertiary students and 58% of its foreign fee-paying students (2010). Nationally important research, business incubation, and entrepreneurship facilities are located in Auckland, and these can enhance economic growth, through their focus on innovation.

27_ The diversity of Auckland’s population, and the global reach of its firms and institutions, link New Zealand with the dynamic economies of the Asia Pacific region. The opportunities for cultural enrichment and economic development arising from migration will be crucial to New Zealand’s long-term prospects, and its emerging identity as an international society. To realise the benefit of increased diversity, new settlers must be able to participate in all aspects of life in Auckland, and access employment that makes full use of their qualifications and experience. This requires collaboration and adaptation from employers, host communities and the migrants themselves.

28_ Auckland is an emerging international city and is fast developing a reputation for the quality of life it offers its residents.

29_ Auckland has a natural environment that few other cities can match. Its beaches, islands, harbours, waterways, volcanoes, lush forests and productive rural areas offer a superb combination of physical beauty, recreational opportunity, economic significance and cultural identity.

30_ Our mild climate allows us to enjoy this environment and participate in outdoor recreational activities all year round. This lifestyle – organised sport, swimming, bush walks or picnicking in the park – is integral to Auckland’s sense of identity.

31_ Since the arrival of tangata whenua many centuries ago, this environment and the opportunities it affords has attracted people from around the world to our shores. The makeup of our population has been transformed, and our sense of identity has evolved with it. By some counts we now rank amongst the most multicultural cities in the world, with 37% of Aucklanders coming from overseas (2006 figures).

32_ Whilst the rich diversity of our people is a source of pride, Māori hold a special place in our identity. The Treaty of Waitangi underpins many aspects of public life in the city. Through the treaty settlement process and subsequent partnership agreements, local iwi are playing a more prominent role in shaping Auckland’s development, and are emerging as economic powerhouses in their own right. Less formally, traditions such as haka are increasingly recognised world-wide, and spark an interest in authentic Māori cultural experiences that many international visitors seek to satisfy upon their arrival in Auckland.

33_ Our ethnic groups make valuable contributions to life in Auckland. Pacific peoples, for example, are prominent in high-profile sectors such as sports and the arts, and they provide economic and trading links to the Pacific Island nations. Our status as the world’s largest Polynesian city is a key aspect of our identity.

Since the arrival of tangata whenua many centuries ago, this environment and the opportunities it affords has attracted people from around the world to our shores.

34_ Our diverse and growing Asian communities have revitalised whole neighbourhoods and provided a wide range of experiences (food, arts, festivals) that have become part of life in Auckland. Their business connections have strengthened our international focus – which is critical to Auckland’s future success.

35_ By global standards Auckland is still a relatively small, comparatively young city, both in terms of the age profile of its population and the history of its development. Aucklanders are proud of our urbanity, our cosmopolitan population, and our many and varied restaurants, cultural events, theatres and galleries. Auckland’s youthfulness and rapid growth have contributed to the energetic atmosphere in parts of the city that is more typical of dynamic cities of the Asia Pacific, such as Sydney, Brisbane, and Singapore, than other New Zealand centres. At the same time our relationship with the rest of New Zealand is characterised by economic interdependence and friendly rivalry.

36_ Despite its rapid growth in recent years, Auckland retains the feel of a collection of villages, each with its own distinctive characteristics. This tells of our heritage.

37_ Many Aucklanders still value the egalitarian principles that our city and country were founded upon. However, in recent years there has been an alarming growth in inequality and the concentration of highly deprived communities in some parts of Auckland. Addressing inequalities is a major focus of the Auckland Plan. Nevertheless, we still view ourselves as a classless society, and have a degree of access to decision makers and figures of authority that is often not possible in larger cities. This brings an immediacy to local democracy that is often evidenced by the vigorous debate of issues of importance to the community.

38_ Proof of the strength of the shared values of Aucklanders and the relative intimacy of life here (compared to larger cities elsewhere), is that the rapid transformation in the demographic composition of Auckland’s population, in less than a generation, has given rise to few incidents of social unrest. Although some migrants, particularly those from a non-English speaking background, can feel isolated and struggle to adapt to life in Auckland, research has shown that most feel welcome here and settle well2. This demonstrates the decency and commonsense of most Aucklanders, both native-born and immigrant. It shows that a common set of values binds us as people. It augurs well for the future of our city, as we strive to achieve our vision as the world’s most liveable city.

39_ Auckland’s climate, geographical, cultural and historical character are unique. It offers:

• a city with islands and a varied marine environment
• a green rural land mass in easy reach of the city
• a temperate climate in a southerly location
• the heritage of tangata whenua
• a diverse city of immigrants with multiple homelands and cultural endowments
• the central hub for the South Pacific islands
• an English-speaking, multi-lingual society set in the Asia Pacific region
• law-abiding, just, progressive social mores
• a highly educated, innovative, creative, and ingenious population
• a stable, open, and mature democracy.

It is this blend that makes Auckland distinctive.

40_ The long-term focus of the Auckland Plan requires consideration of what the world might be like in 2040, and what this would mean for Auckland. Advance forecasting is inexact, yet helps us plan for Auckland’s future.

41_ The world’s population will continue to grow. The United Nations forecasts a global population of 9 billion by 2040, an increase of 2 billion from 2011, mostly in the developing world. The United Nations forecasts that the median age will rise from 40 to 45 in developed countries, and from 27 to 35 years in the developing world. Ageing populations have implications for many aspects of urban planning, including the provision of healthcare services, open space, transport infrastructure and housing. The relative decline of the tax base in many countries will increase the competition between nations for skilled people of working age.

42_ By 2040 the United Nations estimates that around two thirds of the world’s population will live in urban areas (compared to just over half today). Some cities are likely to be extraordinarily large by today’s standards: Beijing, Shanghai and Mumbai could have populations approaching 40 million people. Vast urban conglomerates of unprecedented scale could result from the merging of large, previously distinct, cities. For example, the Pearl River Delta in Southern China may have a population of 80 million people by 2040. Such urban areas will pose new challenges for urban planning, and are likely to lead a shift in the balance of global economic power in future. Between now and 2040, cities from China and India will displace the likes of San Francisco, Toronto, Madrid, Munich, Osaka-Kobe and Sydney from the world’s 30 largest city economies.

43_ Cities will compete with each other in the development of new science and technology and the support for innovative businesses. The rapidity of technological innovation, ongoing internationalisation of national economies and the potential for further reductions to trade barriers, will intensify competition between firms. Competitive advantages may be short-lived, and the pressure to innovate constantly will be intense. Successful cities in 2040 will consider how they can help local firms compete in this environment: support promising new businesses and attract dynamic companies from elsewhere. This will
require more than the provision of world-class communications infrastructure and a conducive regulatory environment.

44_ Liveable cities need a competitive business climate and tax levels, a business-friendly culture, and excellent connectivity. To be recognised as innovation centres, cities will need to support education in the sciences and engineering; support the creation of leading research centres, (particularly in disciplines relevant to key sectors, such as life sciences and clean technologies); foster closer links between those research centres and business; and foster collaboration between complementary sectors to encourage the development of new products and solutions to pressing issues.

45_ By 2040 the impacts of climate change will be obvious, and in some cases devastating. The incidence of extreme weather events will increase markedly by 2040, even if current efforts to combat climate change are stepped up over the next few years. Changing climate patterns will reduce the viability of agriculture in some areas, and force changes to the types of crops grown in others. Some areas that are currently heavily populated may become unfit – or at least less desirable – for habitation, as food and water shortages result from more frequent and severe flooding or drought. Environmental migration from affected areas is likely to increase significantly. The educated and highly skilled will be most able to depart to less affected nations, which will exacerbate existing inequalities. It is possible that by 2040 the number of climate change refugees may be so overwhelming that wealthier, less severely affected nations, such as New Zealand, may come under intense pressure to open their borders to a greater degree than they would otherwise have intended.

46_ Many of the natural resources that have powered economic growth in the twentieth century are likely to be scarcer, and priced significantly higher, in 2040. This is especially true of oil, as many experts believe that we have already passed the point where total production has peaked. Increased oil prices could drive exploration into areas previously considered uneconomic or environmentally sacrosanct. Governments, cities and societies will need to decide whether they are willing to incur the environmental and social costs that will result. As technology improves, the search for viable forms of non-fossil fuels will continue. However, if alternatives to oil are unable to cover the supply deficit, fundamental change to transportation systems, employment patterns, food production and potentially energy generation, in and around cities, will be required well before 2040.

47_ By 2040, bold action in response to climate change, resource shortages and environmental degradation will be recognised as an essential element of the prosperity of cities. Cities that are not perceived to fully embrace sustainability across all aspects of urban planning will struggle to attract talent and investment, and will inevitably decline.

48_ How might Auckland adapt to and thrive in this complex and ever-changing global environment? We will always remain a relatively small centre compared to the global megacities that will dominate economic activity in 2040 and beyond. However, in many ways Auckland is well placed to cope with and benefit from the changing global environment.

49_ The primary reason why Auckland attracts skilled migrants, is the high quality of life it offers to most of its residents. Overcrowding in many cities around the world will accelerate as the global population increases, thereby enhancing the attractiveness of Auckland as a destination for some migrants.

50_ Our physical remoteness, historically a significant disadvantage for New Zealand, is likely to become a key aspect of our appeal, given the potential for increased conflict and terrorism in other parts of the world. As the prime destination for migrants to New Zealand, Auckland will benefit from the perception of our country as a democratic, politically stable, and relatively corruption-free, safe haven.

51_ Although the changing global climate will increase the frequency of storms and droughts in Auckland, we are likely to escape the worst of the severe inundation and/or desiccation expected in some parts of the world. This may add to our appeal, particularly for Pacific and Asian countries, as a destination for migrants and a place to invest capital.

52_ The impact of climate change, resource shortages and heightened food safety concerns, may result in consumers in the developed world placing an increasing premium on goods and services perceived to be produced in a sustainable manner. By 2040, this may translate into significantly improved opportunities to enhance our economy by leveraging off New Zealand’s clean and green reputation. However, like all brands, our clean and green reputation will only survive and be of benefit in the long term if we live up to it and embrace sustainability as a guiding principle across everything we do. In Auckland, this will require policies that would:

• considerably reduce its greenhouse gas emissions
• develop a more balanced transport network with a much greater emphasis on cleaner public transport options and getting around by cycling and walking
• promote energy efficiency; for example, through the enablement of smart grids and better designed residential and commercial buildings
• conserve productive agricultural land on the urban periphery to protect both our export base and our ability to supply our own population during times of global food shortages
• improve our ability to cope with natural disasters and resource shortages.

53_ Enacting policies such as these will not only improve Auckland’s resilience and its ability to cope with unexpected shocks (such as global energy and food shortages), but may also contribute to its attractiveness as a preferred destination for skilled migrants and dynamic companies with a green growth focus.

54_ While several of the likely changes to the global political and economic environment could work in Auckland’s favour, we will not be able to benefit from them fully unless we deal with a number of existing challenges.

55_ Auckland’s population has grown steadily and is projected to continue to do so throughout the period covered by this plan (see Box B.2). The impacts of this growth on the provision of public services, infrastructure and our rural and urban environments must be carefully managed, to enhance what we value about Auckland. Also, as Auckland grows it is important that it remains affordable for its residents, in terms of housing and the general cost of living.

56_ Lifestyle alone is not enough: it must be underpinned by a stronger, more sustainable and more resilient economy if we are to be the world’s most liveable city in 2040. For many years Auckland’s economy has consistently underperformed relative to cities in Australia and elsewhere of a similar size. There are complex, interrelated reasons for this, including our lower rates of productivity compared to other cities in the developed world, our low levels of national savings and capital formation, and the domestic focus of many of our businesses. Finding solutions to these problems and improving our ability to retain skilled people of working age (both migrants and New Zealanders) is central to many of the priorities of the Auckland Plan.

57_ Growing social and economic inequalities have contributed to Auckland’s economic underperformance. If all Aucklanders have the opportunity to reach their potential, this will reduce the possibility of social unrest. Everyone will need to participate in the economic life of the city if it is to thrive in the intensely competitive environment that will characterise the global economy of 2040.

58_ The next section describes the desired outcomes that will characterise the world’s most liveable city in 2040, and the transformational shifts required to get us there.

Box B.2 Auckland in numbers

Auckland’s Estimated Current Population is 1.5 Million

Figure B.1 Auckland's Population Projections (2006-2041)*

Statistics New Zealand models three scenarios for the future of Auckland’s population – high, medium and low growth. Given Auckland’s history of rapid population growth, Auckland Council believes it is prudent to base its future planning on the high-growth scenario, and unless otherwise stated, this model is used throughout the Auckland Plan. The high-growth model projects a population of 2.5 million in 2041. Auckland Council will periodically review with statistics New Zealand, the appropriateness of the highgrowth model as a basis for its ongoing planning.

Auckland’s population growth reflects natural increase and net migration (both internal and international). Natural increase is relatively steady, while net migration patterns vary. Between 2001 and 2006, just over half (55%) of Auckland’s population increase resulted from net gains in migration, and just under half (45%) was due to natural increase, which varies across ethnicities.Half of the population growth in New Zealand between 2001 and 2006 was in Auckland. Auckland’s population is continuing to grow at a faster rate than that of the country as a whole, and so its proportion of New Zealand’s overall population will also grow.One third of children in New Zealand live in Auckland. Those under 25 make up almost 40% of Auckland’s population, and the proportion of children in Auckland is projected to grow at a faster rate than the national average.While Aucklanders are on average younger than other New Zealanders, the proportion of the population over the age of 60 is projected to increase from 10% in 2006 to around 19% by 2040.Auckland has a diverse ethnic and cultural composition. In 1986, 23% of Auckland’s population was born overseas, and this proportion reached 37% by 2006. Auckland is currently home to over 180 ethnicities: this diversity will probably continue to increase, and the Asian and Pacific proportion of the population will grow most significantly. Employment projections suggest that the total number of employees in Auckland could range between 870,000 and 1.04 million by 2041. Even under a medium-growth scenario, the number of employees in the region would grow from 679,700 in 2011 to 955,800 in 2041, which represents growth of around 275,000 employees, or 40%. (See Table B.1)The office sector is expected to experience the largest growth in employees. While growth is next strongest in the education and health sectors, the production and distribution industry sectors will have a higher number of employees as well.

* Although the Auckland Plan’s horizon is to 2040, the projections that underpin the Plan are to 2041 in line with Statistics New Zealand time frames .

Figure B.2 Auckland's Ethnicity (2006-2021)**

** The totals do not add to 100 per cent as respondents can belong to more than one ethnic group. The 2006 census figure for European and other includes the Middle Eastern, Latin American and African category (one and a half per cent of Auckland’s population).

Figure B.3 Auckland's Employment Projections (2007-2041)

Table B.1 Employment Growth In Auckland By Sector (2007-2041)3

Map B.1 Inter-Regional Connectivity